Every crisis offers lessons for how to prepare for the next one. The Wuhan Coronavirus crisis offers many because it is global and some are reacting to it with rational planning while others are reacting with irrational fear.
I maintain this post as a grab bag of that reaction, a junk drawer if you will, of how we responded to it.
Many lessons are to be found there that I will mine later with perspective you can only gain from a distance from the event. One purpose of this analysis is to highlight the unintended, unexpected, and in some ways unknowable impacts of this event. What CDC Wants you to Know Source Coronavirus Could be the End of China as a Manufacturing Hub Source The rulers of China, the Communist Chinese Party, take a top down, centralized strategy (which won't work) to deal with the event.
The CCP will direct all health, manufacturing, culture, social media, transportation, foreign policy, and associated tasks under the guiding principle: Does this maintain and increase CCP power or threaten it? So health considerations are secondary to their staying in power. Here is an excellent analysis of this fact. Why coronavirus cases are higher than Chinese estimates here. Japan is closing its schools to stop the spreadSource
FDA Suspends Drug Inspections in China, Warns of Supply Shortages
"Supply disruptions could extend to other areas as 80 to 90 percent of U.S. health care products—raw materials, active pharmaceutical ingredients, and finished products—are outsourced mainly from China, he said.
Moreover, the production of many active pharmaceutical ingredients is centered in China’s Hubei Province, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said on Feb. 12 at a Senate committee hearing.
“Most drug makers have a one to three months of inventory of drug ingredients on hand. But these supplies are already being drawn down,” he said in his testimony.
Rosemary Gibson, Hastings Center, co-authored the book, “China RX: Exposing the Risks of America’s Dependence on China for Medicine,” which makes the case for bringing drug manufacturing home."
Source Wuhan Coronavirus spreads to South Korea. Source
China's GDP Impact of the Wuhan Virus is not 1% but 20% to 30% "We are not talking about “maybe” a one percent decline in GDP growth. No. We are talking about what I have to believe is more like a 20 to 30 percent decline. We are talking about an economy that is not really functioning." "The fear is so deep that I don’t think there will be a snapback. It will take a long time before people will feel comfortable gathering in groups. All the reunion dinners, company gatherings, and family gatherings will take a while before they return to normal. Until they come back to normal, I don’t see the Chinese economy coming back to normal." Source Impact on global high tech industryhere. Analysis of the Wuhan Virus Impact on Asian supply chain. Source Ripple Effect: Korea, Japan stock markets take a hit. Source Dr. Sasha Hu, Chinese doctor, has a good video about how to mitigate flu infection, here.) Excellent law and business analysis can be found on the China Law Blog. The reality of what is going on in Wuhan can be heard here. and here.
The biggest lesson is that the Communist Chinese Party (CCP) secrecy, deception and food health policies led to the Chinese Wuhan coronovirus worldwide spread. See here It has led to monumental unintended consequences I list a few below. EVERYTHING with the CCP involves propaganda. The Jamestown Foundation does a great job of breaking down their skulduggery here. Here is a good Wuhan Virus infographic for background.
As several times before, the CCP sought to hide the latest Chinese Coronovirus. Their secrecy and deception have led to unnecessary illness for thousands and deaths for hundreds...and it is only beginning. See here. Read about CCP lying, deception and secrecy here: https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3047999/how-chinas-coronavirus-crisis-sars-epidemic-was-worsened-communist https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html?src=article-launcher CCP Made Doctor Who Discovered Wuhan Coronivirus Sign Secrecy Form - He Died "However, Li, along with seven other doctors who shared information about the outbreak, was summoned to the local police and forced to sign a letter promising to make no further disclosures concerning the disease". Li Wenliang, one of the eight doctors who tried to alert authorities about the coronavirus when it was first emerging in Wuhan only to be reprimanded by local police, has died, Chinese media reported.
Li, 34, an ophthalmologist at the Wuhan Central Hospital, was found to be infected with coronavirus on Saturday and died on Thursday. The same day that the doctor shared the messages, local health authorities announced that the city had confirmed 27 cases of a new type of virus, most of them linked to a seafood market.
However, Li, along with seven other doctors who shared information about the outbreak, was summoned to the local police and forced to sign a letter promising to make no further disclosures concerning the disease.What a great doctor. SourceLi Wenliang, Hero, Photo via CNN
Largest Socialized Medicine System in the World Fails Horribly
The communist medical system in China did not have nearly enough hospitals, clinics, doctors, nurses, medical supplies, diagnostic equipment, medicine, personal protective equipment, or anything near adequate resources to handle this epidemic. All the communist lies about the high standard of living in contemporary China are exposed. The building of the three field hospitals in Wuhan to address this inadequacy provides as much of a solution as the Potemkin Villages in the Soviet Union did for starvation. Even if the CCP had not lied and tried to hide the extent of the epidemic, the third-world state of their medical system would have meant that the disease would have spread anyway. The CCP emphasis on building the three field hospitals to handle the crisis defies reality. Why their military was not able to stand up numerous fully operational, manned and equipped field hospitals as our military can indicates how inadequate their military is as well. See story here. "Many people from Hubei who tried to get into Hong Kong (for better health care) have been stopped at the border, have stayed in Shenzhen, and this may trigger Shenzhen’s infection cases to skyrocket to the point where people are ordered to stay home" Source. CPP Culture of Coverup Revelations from doctors, whistle blowers, and government officials demonstrate that a culture of cover-up and deceit within the Chinese Communist Party’s bureaucracy contributed to the disease’s spread.
In order to avoid political blame, authorities didn’t disclose to Chinese citizens details about the disease nor the true scale of the outbreak. Information about the first infected patients in the disease epicenter Wuhan was omitted, while authorities restricted testing of the disease, thus effectively capping the number of people who could be diagnosed.
As a result, many Chinese were unaware of the perils until it was too late. Source Analysis of what wearing a mask daily does to human interaction here. Without a Cure There is only Guessing One of the greatest problems with a new coronavirus such as the Wuhan one is that no doctor, scientist or government bureaucrat knows what it is at first. So they guess as to cause and transmission. Source
CCP Refuses CDC Expertise Further proof of CCP secrecy and totalitarian bad planning is that President Trump has repeatedly offered the expertise of the U.S. Center for Disease Control but the CCP refuses it. Like any totalitarian government, they would rather their people die than accept help. Source. Chinese Military Runs 1,000 Bed Hospitals - No Transparency Chinese military now operates the mega-hospitals built in Wuhan. Result? Secrecy, data manipulation, patients being held in prison-like cells. Yet, China as a member of the World Heath Organization has agreed to provide data and transparency, something the Chinese People's Army has never been known to exhibit. Source
Unintended Consequences
I am learning many, many lessons from this outbreak. Here are a few: Chinese Factories will Reopen Slowly due to Worker Blacklisting "Last week, the government of Suzhou, a major manufacturing hub in Jiangsu province, which is known for its silk products, asked local communities to tell workers from Hubei and Zhejiang provinces not to return until further notice. This employee “blacklisting” was echoed by other cities, including Wuxi in the south of Jiangsu, which banned migrant workers from at least seven provinces." Source And factory workers cannot return as inventory is depleted. Source Impact of one billion Chinese workers not manufacturing product is just beginning. Source. Global Economic Impact Indeed, the battle to contain the epidemic brought much of the world's "second-largest economy to a standstill. The Chinese provinces most affected by the coronavirus are home to 49,884 branches or subsidiaries of foreign corporations, including nearly 9,500 American operations, according to Dun & Bradstreet." Source Alternative Social Media Provides the Truth the CPP Hides Citizen journalists, independent bloggers and Vloggers, Twitter and Instgram posters, are all providing independent observations of what is going on in China under the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic. Here are just a few. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nkF4qYdNU9Y https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AbuqmziQ28I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKcMVXTucpw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4Ho96UKfYA https://www.theepochtimes.com/citizen-journalist-in-coronavirus-epicenter-of-wuhan-has-been-detained-by-local-police_3233602.html?ref=brief_News&utm_source=Epoch+Times+Newsletters&utm_campaign=ee55737aca-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_02_11_08_16&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_4fba358ecf-ee55737aca-241782809 #wuhan#doctors#hospitals#wuhancity#students#china#coronavirus#kerala#chinesepresident#xijinping#infected#peoplesliberationarmy#pla#wuhanuniversity#governmentofindia#virus#firstcase#patient#hospitals#corona#ill#sick#trending#truescoopnews#truescoop#Newschannel#testedpositive#Newschannel Medical Specialists Hit Hardest Those who help and treat those infected pick up the infection. Source CCP AI and Facial Monitoring Fails Due to Face Masks The CCP's massive AI and facial recognition program that depends on camera's has failed due to the face masks everyone is wearing that cover the face. Source USPS Suspends Mail for China Due to no flights going to China, USPS suspends mail service to China, Hong Kong, Macau. Source. CCP Welding Apartment Residents Inside Because of confirmed #Coronavirus infection inside the apartment, residents doors are being welded shut. Source Chinese Nationals Sneak out of China by Lying about Country of Origin There are Chinese nationals who have broken the quarantine and fled stating a non-Chinese origin, like Hong Kong, to get into Australia and other nations. Here is the full story. Private Companies are Saving Chinese People Where CCP has Failed "Ironically, while the Chinese military has been behind in its mobilization, the private sector has stepped in to fill the void. In the face of medical supply and health services gaps, there are numerous examples circulating of individuals donating relief supplies or helping those in need. E-commerce giant Alibaba established a 1 billion RMB ($144 million USD) special fund to directly purchase medical supplies from home and abroad and send them to hospitals in Wuhan and Hubei on a regular basis. It also created detailed plans for mobilizing domestic production capacity and coordinating production and procurement of medical supplies, while also provided hundreds of meals for breakfast, lunch, and dinner at two hospitals in Wuhan, free of charge." Source CCP Censors Even More than Usual The CCP believes it can control social media communication about the impact of the pandemic. This will be an epic fail for them. Social media technology enables people to find out the truth even when the CCP seeks to push lies, misinformation, and to pretend the pandemic isn't as bad as it really is. "China’s internet watchdog is tightening controls on social media platforms after a brief period of tolerance, as it cracks down on content that may sow fear and confusion amid the coronavirus crisis.
The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said in a statement released late on Wednesday that it has set up supervision on platforms that include those run by microblogging service provider Sina Weibo, short video and news apps operator ByteDance, and Tencent Holdings, which owns the ubiquitous multipurpose app WeChat.
The regulator said it required internet platforms and local authorities to “create a good cyberspace environment to win the battle against the [coronavirus] epidemic”.
Baidu, operator of China’s dominant online search service, has been summoned to rectify what the CAC described as lenient management on illegal information posted by its users, according to the statement.
The watchdog said it has also removed a social app called Pipi Gaoxiao from app stores for “posting harmful videos, and spreading fear and panic” about the coronavirus outbreak, as well as taken down some media and blogger accounts for fake news." Source American Private Sector Helps Chinese Citizens We’ve also facilitated the delivery of vast amounts of medical supplies to the Chinese people. Just last week, the State Department helped transport 17.8 tons of relief supplies to Hubei. And more assistance will continue to be offered — the United States is prepared to spend up to $100 million in existing State and U.S. Agency for International Development funds to assist China and other impacted countries to contain and combat the virus. "While [U.S. Department of] State managed the logistics, the donations themselves were provided by Samaritan’s Purse, Boeing, Intermountain Healthcare and The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and coordinated by a nongovernmental organization called Project HOPE. Time and again, when diseases and disasters strike, the American people have stepped up to help citizens of other countries without being asked. Our robust charitable giving and enthusiastic civil society groups are channeling the American people’s concern for their fellow man." Source
Panic Buying Unfortunately, panic buying is to be expected in any disaster. Just look at each hurricane that hits the U.S., and that is predictable. This coronavirus pandemic is not predictable in advance. So, as this this story about Hong Kong, human nature is to panic and buy items they are afraid will be in short supply. The lack of information from the Chinese authorities exacerbates it, and it spirals out of control. So it goes. Source. Interrupted School Attendance and Exam Taking "Portions of Hong Kong’s university entrance exam along with the Primary Six exam for secondary school placements could be pushed back by a much as a month or cancelled entirely as the spread of the coronavirus continues, the education minister announced on Thursday.
Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung also said that a scheduled reopening of schools on March 2 would need to be reviewed closer to the date." Source
Cruise Ships are a Clear and Present Contagion Danger Most of the analysis of the spread of pandemic viruses focus on how rapidly a virus can spread due to modern commercial airline travel. Far less attention is given to the same threat from cruise ships. Yet, with thousands of passengers, effectively cruise ships are modern floating cities. One example of this threat is detailed here. Airline Flight Cancellations One of the most critical infrastructure pillars of modern life is unimpeded airline travel. People and goods are transferred around the world via air travel. The China coronavirius led many nations and airline companies to cancel all flights to and from China. Source. Cathay Airlines Asks 27,000 Employees to Take Unpaid Leave Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific is asking all of its 27,000 employees to take three weeks of unpaid leave over the coming months as Hong Kong’s flagship carrier reels from the impact of the deadly coronavirus on air travel. Source Global Supply Chain with China will Radically Change Now that the global supply chain that has been dependent on China for 30 yeas is being shattered, risk adverse companies will withdraw from the mainland and relocate elsewhere. It was a trend that was already beginning. Now, it will accelerate. See here.And here. Impact on Logistics and Manufacturing There are far more questions (Will Chinese workers return to work? What are the disruptions to logistics?) to answer. The only thing everyone agrees on is that no one trusts the data coming our of Beijing. More details here and here. Just in Time Logistics May be Overt Closed factories in China are negatively impacting the global supply chain and creating questions about the future of just in time logistics. Source Impact on Small Manufactures and Businesses Due to their size and limited ability to survive even a limited lack of revenue, the greatest impact of the Chinese coronavirus may be small manufacturers and businesses. Source and here. Online Shopping Mitigates Store Closures and Stock Impact Apple Corporation has an interesting statement after they closed their stores in China. "Apple is following the trend of McDonald's, Starbucks, and other US companies that have retail stores/footprints within China," Daniel Ives, the managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities, said. Ives noted that consumer purchases of iPhones and Apple products in the region have "already taken place in the lead up to the start of the Chinese New Year," and that Apple had strong sales for December and January as well as strong year-over-year sales.
With the vast majority of sales happening online, "we view a one week closure of Apple stores as having a negligible impact thus far despite the scary and concerning headlines from the region," Ives added.
"While the coronavirus outbreak is a sad situation and concerning headline for investors, for the stock we believe the fundamental impact from this issue to Apple’s top-line is negligible," he wrote." Source.
Global Airline Cancellations: American Airlines, British Airways, Lion Air, and Seoul Air are suspending all flights to China with Air Canada with select flights. Royal Caribbean and Carnival cancelled cruises in China. Patients in Wuhan spitting on doctors to purposely infect them (the ultimate unintended consequence).https://nypost.com/video/sick-wuhan-man-purposely-coughs-on-hospital-staff-amid-chinas-coronavirus-scare/ #coronaravirus Authorities Cannot Control the Entire Message in Pandemics Worldwide, people have had varying reactions to the Chinese coronavirus, from seeking more information to panic. It demonstrates that with billions of people using social media daily, even the CCP with its remarkable worldwide power and influence, especially over social media, cannot control the message. See here. Tracking Wristbands for Potential Carriers Hong Kong has put tracking wristbands on potential coronavirus carriers from Hubei.
7,000 Cruise Ship Passengers Quarantined Two passengers on a cruise ship are feared to have caught coronavirus, leaving 7,000 passengers and crew trapped onboard. The Italian cruise ship Costa Smeralda is being held at Civitavecchia close to Rome while tests are carried out on a Chinese couple with fever. More here.
Drones Spraying Disinfectant China has deployed an army of drones to disperse disinfectant over villages and cities in the latest attempt to combat the spread of coronavirus. Not sure how effective this will be, but it is proof of my idea that drones will be useful, and increasingly used, to cope for natural and man made disasters. Here is where I asserted this after the Mount Airy tornado. See here. Rumors Cause Death of Pets
The CCP has always been corrupt, power mad, and controls every aspect of life...even donations from foreigners. Americans in New York sent face masks that are in short supply to China via the Red Cross. Here's what happened. The Red Cross in communist China, like the Catholic Church, is owned by the CCP. So...they seized the American donated face masks, demanded money for forwarding them, and are selling them for a profit.
Here are some of my past CBRNe (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear) presentations that may be useful for this event. The detection and mitigation matrix at the end may be especially helpful.
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