Gary Halo Prediction Series
The Prediction Series was started in mid-Year 1999 just before the New Years turnover of 2000. A very worrisome time. I had installed Part One of the Series on a web platform called Angel Fire. As the articles were created, thousands followed along as they came out.
Then the rug was pulled out from under the site creators. Angel Fire informed us that they were sold, so everyone had to copy their work and save it somewhere before it disappeared. We had a few weeks I believe before everything was gone.
So I looked for one of the most stable platforms I could find. I chose Microsoft, thinking it would remain there a long time, if perhaps almost forever. It moved along as well with the technology of the time.
I started a blog there in 2001. It had the Gary Halo Prediction Series Part One and ongoing articles of things happening quite soon. Some predictions complete nonsense of course. Others not too bad.
Things were going fine. People were discovering my work. Got a few crazies from time to time but for the most part, most read and even offered an opinion sometimes. I started Part 2 of the Series. Again writing subject articles as they were written, with people following the progress.
I finished the Series in late 2002 and enjoyed adding more 'around current times' predictions as they came to me. In 2006, Microsoft dropped the hammer! I received a notice that the platform where I had my materials were being moved. That if you wanted to save anything, fill out the online form and it would be automatically transferred. It was to take weeks.
Of course, they recommended that we back up our sites quickly. But not to worry.
My website never reappeared on the new platform. Nothing! The old site and platform blinked out. Perhaps someone at Microsoft mistakenly assumed my predictions were my opinions. I could only save Prediction Series Part 1 And 2 but nothing of the many years of lost predictions on the blog.
Microsoft said," Sorry. We don't know what happened." And that was that!
I've carried the Gary Halo Prediction Series for all these years, on hard drives and various Clouds waiting and looking for the right time. Around two weeks ago, Feb/2019, while searching for an old article I wrote I discovered my old site had been archived. I still cannot quite believe it! Proof it existed and more importantly, the dated writings. Wow!
With the new social media platforms available, along with new crypto-currency freedoms, promotion issues aren't all that important. The bugs will be worked out.
Thank you for coming.
#journalism #freespeech #philosophy
Disaster Contingency Basics
DISASTER CONTINGENCY BASICS
Created by Gary Halo
INTRODUCTION TO THIS REPORT
This report provides a starting point for the consideration of preparation ideas for families and organizations to help allay fears and possible panic caused by natural or man-made calamities.
The author, after extensive study and monitoring of Man's progress, has arrived at the conclusion that our modern civilization will most assuredly experience and have to endure increasing hardships.
The number of disruptions by natural disasters or man-made war. and their duration will vary markedly from location to location. The unknown factors such as difficult to remedy supply chain problems of food, electrical power, fuel, telecommunications, or replacement parts, has to be taken into consideration.
The author proposes bringing the public in on the potential disruptions as they happen, and soliciting their co-operation and assistance in helping our fellow Man in times of need. Wherever it may occur, leading up to the disaster and the following re-formative years.
When the public is clamoring for answers on why their bank doesn't have enough cash or the power keeps going out or your product or services aren't available, you'd better be prepared. Perhaps this Overview can help.
You should get educated on the subject thoroughly. Study up on various preparation websites and then...
Disaster planning is for real situations. It's not hyped to gain Likes or Hits on the Net by those looking to capitalize on others misery.
No. Disasters, man-made or natural, can rapidly evolve into a crisis with some very critical social implications.
I'll assume that you have done your homework on possible war up to this point and are coming to grips with the liabilities to your family, your organization, the community, your country and the world at large.
After EMI, computer systems can malfunction to the extent that they're rendered useless. Until at least such time as the technicians get around to replacing the most vital ones needed to carry on a civilized society.
What our future holds, good or bad will be up to each and every one of us. What we do about, right here and now, on a personal and organizational level, will inevitably affect the outcome of our lives and those to follow for a very long time. How stupid we were to ignore the warnings of the very people who run the system.
Confront is what is required to get your society prepared for the upcoming crisis. A disaster can only be deemed a disaster after the results are in. Let's work on thwarting a disaster. You must get a real assessment of the liabilities that surround you. It takes the ability to confront the issues within your surroundings.
We have a lot to do. Let's get busy.
ESTIMATION OF EFFORT
Estimation of effort can be defined as " that amount of effort or activity perceived by one to achieve an objective or outcome of results". potentials, by their very integrated nature, have been to date, extremely difficult to predict.
Unfortunately, we won't know until the dust settles sometime after. It is up to each and every one of us within our own environments to estimate the extent of how war will impact on the survival of our family and organizations.
Your Estimation of Effort has to depend on true data. You MUST identify your threats both internally and externally.
You're going to have to do some research and dig for the true state of your liabilities, personally and organizationally. The information you'll need to make concrete workable contingency plans.
Your contingency plans need to based on your estimates of liabilities around you, and you must work in a series of circles outwards, in order of importance, starting with:
Yourself and immediate family
Extended family and friends
Your workplace and community
State or Province
Obviously, a person cannot function properly doing a job which will inevitably become more stressful as the troubles draw near if they haven't made and carried out adequate preparations at home for disruptions.
A company hoping to survive by keeping their staff working twelve hour days had better take into consideration their personnel's family needs or they'll have valuable people jumping ship out of self-defense.
Perhaps if enough of us do the right thing and we have workable contingency plans in place, we can struggle through the crisis without losing too much of our infrastructure. Be realistic, honest, and work hard. A lot depends on your efforts.
How can I take responsibility for society-wide disruptions? Truth is, you can't. Problems are too big and far too complex.
Even the presidents, prime ministers, chancellors, kings or dictators around the world cannot take full responsibility for the impacts of war on their societies. It's that kind of all-engrossing, all-encompassing type of situation.
They'll delegate authority to underlings. In other words, delegate responsibilities to "Military Czars" or committees or councils or state governments or municipal councils or emergency response teams or..... Do you get the idea? Anywhere but here on my desk. The buck doesn't stop here. It's further down the command line.
You may have faith in the top-down chain of command to maintain a semblance of order when things start getting messy. After all those years as a good tax-paying, law-abiding citizen, you would expect the "authorities" take care of you in your time of need.
Or perhaps, on the other side of the coin, you've been taken care of for years by the State and expect it to continue on. I wish you well. I honestly do but I for one, am not comfortable depending on other people's competence. I don't want to be the victim of someone's administrative "snafu".
Just suppose the federal government issues a statement, "Every State and community will have to fend for themselves in the upcoming crisis. The Federal government will concentrate on the national agenda to safeguard the integrity of the nation." In other words, "Don't call us. We'll call you."
So what can you do? Can you take responsibility for you? Many will not. As soon as the problems start, there will be a great many people who've intentionally ignored the warnings and will be the first out marching to the government buildings. Maybe, just perhaps, the "officials" aren't on duty. Perhaps they've taken their banked holidays. (It's their union right, don't you know?). You're on your own unless you've implemented some of the contingency plans outlined in this report.
If you are mentally or physically handicapped, you can still be responsible for yourself by ensuring the people who are charged with your care have made adequate contingency plans that include the continued provision of your special needs. You may have to educate an advocate about liabilities to help you but it can be done.
So you've arrived at the decision to be responsible for yourself. Can you carry out contingency plans for your immediate family members? They may think you're nuts right at this moment, doing their own "thing", making money and having fun.
This doesn't mean you can't quietly and efficiently carry out some type of fallback plans putting away some food and water supplies. Possibly an alternative heat source if you reside in colder climes. Overcoming adversity in trying times is what makes heroes. It also takes courage.
After you've written and executed some of your battle plans and secured adequate supplies for your loved ones, perhaps you may feel the need to expand your horizon of responsibility into the community.
Perhaps share your knowledge with others, find more good ideas or even take a leadership role. It's your call. It depends how much of a sphere of responsibility you can be effective with.
You may find a comfort level under a more effective, competent community leader but you'll be far better prepared than to go at it alone.
CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?
So you look around and don't see any evidence of disruptions yet. Your friends and work associates assure you, " Don't worry. Be happy".
They'll fix the political crisis.
Let me ask you this. If "they" can't fix some things right now in the best of times with a fully functioning core infrastructure, what makes you think "they" can fix it under the duress and possible arduous conditions of war?
Special note: If your hearing the word "local crisis" every second day on the national and local newscasts, you and your family or organization have very little time to prepare if you haven't done so already.
If you're hearing the word "emergency" from the politicians and news people and you haven't gotten your contingency preparations in place, it's already far too late. You'll have to run to acquire the last items on your wish list before the rush.
If the word "disaster" is heard throughout the emergency broadcasts, well, I pray you to have everything in place to ride out any disruptions that may come your way. If not, please re-read the preceding chapters above for something you didn't understand. That's if, of course, you have time between scrounging for food and water or lining up at the local government ration center.
CONTINGENCY PLANNING BASICS
Individuals and Businesses
In the event of war, take a hard look at what " has to be " for you to exist and function effectively despite disruptions of power, food distribution, water purification or business computer system failures. Prioritize the drawn up list with the assistance of others who have a stake in the preparations and a personal interest in the outcome. In other words, solicit the cooperation and input from others around you. You may have priorities which others may not share or may have contributions which you may have overlooked.
Have ample cash reserves on hand to tide you over the hump. You can forego the meager earnings paid on interest and dividends to safeguard your assets for the future. You need not to gamble away your life savings on the word of bankers and brokers.
They have a vested interest in keeping you from withdrawing your funds and will most likely tell you anything to keep you as a client. Even when the IT people are scrambling for fixes at the last minute. You can always invest in the winners later.
For companies, you can only move your reserves to a safe haven or invest in massive amounts of production so you have an abundance of stock to sell into the recovery period.
Assess those items on the agreed upon list of Priorities and pare it down to the simple bare necessities which "need to be" in place to carry on orderly survival. Cut the frills or items requiring high maintenance (if needed, have ample spare parts at hand). Eliminate those items needing extra effort in special storage or care. This applies to all individuals, families and groups of whatever size.
Use your available funds with prudence and foresight. Pay down and eliminate long-term financial obligations that will inevitably impede and create a liability to rapid recovery later when times get tough. Purchase only those items that will directly enhance your survival longevity. For a family, it may be non-perishable food items and an alternative power and heat source along with sufficient water storage containers.
For a company, it may entail ordering and storing huge inventories of materials required for manufacturing and servicing your clients. If you're heavily dependent on computerized automation processes, with no hope, you may consider producing a full year's supply of products to tide you over.
Test the Plan
Shut off the power to your residence or business along with the telephones and water. Only eat that which you intend to survive on for nourishment and use those things you have acquired to see you through. Take notes on what occurs. What won't function properly with the idea of finding a substitute or better method? Above all, observe the results over whatever period of time you deem appropriate.
You'll definitely get new ideas and a new perspective. Again, solicit the input from those around you. They'll have a different viewpoint as well (that is if they're not throwing things at you before the end of the test period to get you to turn the power and water back on).
Preparations require not only the physical but a mental fortitude as well. Earlier, I touched on the topic of the attitude others may have toward your preparations. Ignore them. They'll all come around later (unfortunately, probably for a handout).
You're probably going through or have gone through the classic manic-depressive symptoms while discovering and researching the implications of war, civil or national. Welcome to the club! Assume the viewpoint that you're included in an elite group of seers wise enough to foresee the future.
The preparations for disruptions in war, also natural calamities, are really quite simple and need not be very expensive. Consider the price of not having the basic necessities available for those within your sphere of responsibility! Far better to have everything needed in place for a six month period of disruptions than to have to salvage the pieces of a war-wearied family, organization, community or nation.
EXTREME CONTINGENCY PLANNING
Individuals and Businesses
This could generally come under the heading of Estimation of Effort but warrants further consideration. You'll hear stories of people "heading for the hills", buying or renting farms somewhere in the sparsely populated outback, learning to grow beans and acquiring a taste for small rodents. Some of the plans seem rather elaborate involving generators, solar panels, food preservation, and a fortress mentality.
If you're not getting substantial reports of progress from your government, you'd better consider relocating your family and business operations to a safe haven.
This is, of course, based on what I'll call the "insanity to responsibility ratio" within a given community. If shots are fired and sirens whine throughout the day and night. If you fear for your life at night or there seems to be an air of potential violence and a history of civil unrest in your area, you should network with family and business associates to relocate if only temporarily until the core infrastructure is functioning properly.
As a business, you may have to close up shop until things return to normal. You may even have to change careers or provide a different type of product or service if the disruptions turn out to be long term.
On Community Preparedness
Community preparations will be the issue well into the new millennium. Most axioms set out within this Overview (confront, estimation of effort, responsibility, crisis and basic contingency planning) may be helpful if looked at on a broader scale. It's going to require the co-operation and assistance of acknowledged and respected local opinion leaders including those prominent leaders of businesses, churches, and ethnic communities.
Community preparations have to include the entire community. Everyone including those who refuse to co-operate now as well as those who prove uncooperative and rebellious during the disruptive nature or war stages.
You and your neighbors can be part of the solution or part of the problem. Best to have an abundance of basic survival necessities to distribute to others in need than to fend off desperate individuals trying to get at your meager stores.
" Hope for the best. Plan for the worst " is a motto you'll probably hear from time to time. Look at having adequate provisions for service disruptions and lack of goods delivery as a sort of an insurance policy against hardships.
Even if your area remains relatively unscathed by disruptions of power, telecommunications or food distribution, or bombs, at least you can render assistance to other communities hardest hit. I can guarantee that there will definitely be areas of our country and around the world, which haven't prepared adequately for natural disasters or war.
Hopefully, it won't be where you live. Unfortunately, we won't be receiving the "official" warnings until the last of our elite are safe, Difficult to accurately judge our current liabilities indeed. Don't panic and don't get angry. It won't help. Be prepared!
Implement a draft, or at least a temporary re-deployment moratorium of specialists to work, in order of priority, on:
Electric power generation plants.
Water purification plants and waste treatment plants.
Telephone and rail transportation (food distribution network).
Government departments Implement a flat tax on all levels of income and widely publicize a "no tolerance" policy for tax payment evasion.
Create a national Contingency War Room, with links to likewise State \ Province war rooms, staffed with top government and military officials, emergency planning directors, and top computer specialists to give advice and address any failures in their field of expertise.
Recall unneeded military from foreign lands and redistribute the troops into major cities to maintain order (an Emergency Act may be required) and protect innocent citizens.
Rapid response swat teams may be needed to quell unrest or gun battles.
Ensure at least one power station, water purification plant, and telecommunications center are completely safe within each State or Province and work on adding more to the network one after another rather than all of them 80% repairable but non-functioning.
Warehouse vast quantities of food basics, household necessities (toiletries) and emergency fuel supplies including cured firewood in well -guarded depots around population centers.
Prepare to be vilified by the public who put you in office and counted on you to take care of their interests. If you're not willing to make the "hard" decisions on what's needed to thwart disaster, please resign now.
Get out of the way so more responsible and competent leaders can take the helm.
Da Lab is a new feature I've started here at the Top Tier. I'll be writing new articles almost right before your eyes, from start, revisions, development and onto the general release. People on that level can make suggestions. It could be fun.